What follows is a mathematical exploration of climate change, and of the implications it has for humanity.
To begin with, we must investigate what Gross Domestic Product is, as well as what it is not. GDP is not a measure of overall wealth, but rather, the rate at which wealth accrues. For instance, a United States GDP of $25 trillion during the year 2022 means that the fiscal wealth of Americans grew by that overall amount during that year.
That having been established, historical GDP for the entire world during the year of 2022 was $100 trillion. Again, that number represents the amount of new money humanity added to its wealth.
Moreover, an analysis of the last 38 years of global GDP growth reveals an annual appreciation rate of 5.635% per year. This was determined mathematically by solving the following equation: ((($100 trillion / $12.5 trillion) ^ (1 / 38 yrs) - 1) * 100) = 5.625%/yr.
That much aside, we must now investigate the cost of global natural disasters. In the year 2000, this figure stood at $106 billion in overall losses. 17 years later, that figure had grown to $485 billion. Using the same mathematics yields an annual growth rate of 9.358% per year. Again, the equation for this is: ((($485 billion / $106 billion) ^ (1 / 17 yrs)) - 1) * 100) = 9.358%/yr.
Now we must compare the two growth functions. Asymptotic Mathematics dictates that an exponential function (i.e. f(x) = e^x) with a higher growth rate will inevitably overtake one with a smaller growth rate, regardless of either function's starting conditions.
In other words, even though global GDP now dwarfs wealth lost to natural disasters, the fact that damages are increasing at twice the pace of global GDP growth indicates that the one will inevitably exceed the other given enough time.
We will refer to that inevitable point in time as "Climate Supremacy." The obvious next question then becomes: when will this point in time be reached? Thankfully, we are mathematically endowed to answer that question as well.
The following equation will reveal the answer: $100,000e9 * 1.05625^t = $829e9 * 1.09358^t
Solving for the variable t will tell us the specific point in time at which $829 billion growing at an annual rate of 9.358% will overtake $100 trillion growing at an annual rate of 5.625%
The following algebraic steps will solve the equation:
• ($100,000e9 / $829e9) = (1.09358^t) / (1.05625^t)
• ($100,000e9 / $829e9) = (1.09358 / 1.05625)^t
• ln($100,000e9 / $829e9) = ln((1.09358 / 1.05625)^t)
• ln($100,000e9 / $829e9) = t * ln(1.09358 / 1.05625)
• t = ln($100,000e9 / $829e9) / ln(1.09358 / 1.05625)
• t = ln(120.62726176115802171290711700844) / ln(1.0353415493242639065859838383878)
• t = 4.7927053098349334455005185335792 / 0.03473137162663869851337583621437
• t = 137.99355122960260047734629186832 yr
In other words: at its current pace, 138 years from now, in the year 2160 AD, annual financial losses due to climate change will permanently eclipse those gained from global economic activity.
This does not mean that humanity should forestall efforts to combat climate change until that point in time is reached. Both GDP and natural disasters are forecast to total upwards of $150 quadrillion by that time, which is a staggeringly incomprehensible number for us in the modern world.
This mathematical approach is intended only to provide the reader with the absolute worst-case scenario imaginable. With both luck and resolve, we as a people can and will succeed in salvaging our planetary situation before such an abysmal point is reached.
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