My market research over the last few years has led me to a startling prediction: that as time moves forward, bull markets will become ever longer, and bear markets will become ever shorter.
Why do I predict this? Well, to begin with, I have found exponential growth correlation over the millennia of humanity's wealth generation. Since ancient days, it has increased at a fairly predictable pace. That much is not to be expected.
But I have also been able to correlate those very same growth functions with the long-term growth of the stock market. This means that, through boom and bust, the stock market maintains an average growth that approximates that of humanity's overall wealth generation.
Again, that is not a significant revelation. However, by isolating and investigating both boom and bust market forces, I have correlated both with growth and decline far in excess of the long-term wealth growth function.
What this means is that, through both bull and bear markets, the overall stock market remains tethered to the aforementioned growth in universal wealth. The bull market quickly outpaces it, followed by a bear market that quickly plunges below it, ad infinitum, with the overall market growth over the years remaining steady.
Therefore, as we move into the future, and the pace of overall economic growth rises exponentially, the time it takes a bull market to surpass that standard increases, leading to longer boom cycles, and the time it takes a bear market to undercut it decreases, leading to briefer bust cycles.
This does not mean that either one will be less pronounced; only that their duration will change accordingly.
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