Why is the Ukrainian counteroffensive failing? Two ancient rules of war offer an explanation.
Both rules are millennia-old, predating even Sun Tzu's "Art of War." And they have been verified on virtually every battlefield since, from Ancient Egypt to World War II.
The first rule is: an invading army must outmatch their opponent by a ratio of at least three to one in order to succeed in their offensive. This does not mean that exceeding that ratio guarantees success, but falling far short of it practically dooms the attackers to defeat.
The second rule is: launching a military campaign from East to West is far easier and more effective that from West to East. The reason why is fairly self-evident: when invading from East to West, individual assaults can be coordinated at dawn with the rising Sun, which blinds the opponent, obscuring the attackers' forces. The latter has no such advantage, and so fairs more poorly on the offensive.
This does not mean that Ukraine is doomed to lose this war. It only means that they must shift their overall strategy somewhat.
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