Before I begin, I must warn the reader: this will be one of the most truly horrifying things you will ever read. It concerns the near statistical inevitability of nuclear warfare during the Modern Age of humankind. I used the exact same mathematics to accurately predict the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster several years in advance, even while I was mocked and humiliated for being opposed to nuclear energy.
In Engineering, there is an old saying: "Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong, given enough time." It is derived from a simple mathematical formula: if there is an X% chance of something occurring during time T, then there is approximately a (1 - (1 - X)^M) chance of that same thing occurring over time M*T. I use the word "approximately" because in reality the equation is much more complicated, involving derivatives and integrals, but for all intents and purposes its simplified version can be used to illustrate a simple point: that as you repeatedly take a chance on something, the probability that you will achieve it rapidly approaches 100% over time.
Moreover, the rate at which even something with a small likelihood of occurrence becomes a near certainty is absolutely staggering, to the point where it becomes not a question of if, but when that "something" occurs. This is good news in that it confirms the old saying: "If at first you don't succeed, try and try again." But it is also very bad news when dealing with calamitous events, like an asteroid impacting the Earth or, in this case, nuclear warfare.
To begin with, let's make a ridiculously modest assumption that there is a 1 in 10,000 chance of nuclear warfare occurring this year. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, both the American and Soviet leadership estimated a 50/50 chance of nuclear war between their respective nations, so this is an extremely generous assumption to make, particularly given the current political climate.
So then, what would be the chances of nuclear warfare breaking out at some point over the course of the average human lifespan (67 years)? To answer that, we simply plug the numbers into the above equation. X = 1 / 10,000 = 0.0001 and M = 67. (1 - (1 - 0.0001)^67) = 0.00668 = 0.668%, or 1 in 150.
No big deal, right? But what about the probability of nuclear warfare during the 21st century? X = 0.0001 and M = 100. (1 - (1 - 0.0001)^100) = 0.01 = 1%, or 1 in 100.
Is this starting to get a bit more scary? If not, then let's examine the chances of nuclear warfare before an American born today's grandchildren pass away. X = 0.0001 and M = 200. (1 - (1 - 0.0001)^200) = 0.02 = 2%, or 1 in 50.
Now let's examine the long-term prospects for our species. Civilization has lasted the last 4000 years. What are the odds of nuclear warfare at some point over the next millennium? X = 0.0001 and M = 1000. (1 - (1 - 0.0001)^1000) = 0.095 = 9.5%, or 1 in 11.
I mentioned the ridiculousness of the original assumption. Most experts place the odds of nuclear warfare happening in any given year at anywhere from 1% to 10%. So again, let's use the low-end estimate of 1% and calculate the odds of nuclear warfare during the next decade. X = 0.01 and M = 10. (1 - (1 - 0.01)^10) = 0.096 - 9.6%, or 1 in 10. What about over the next century? X = 0.01 and M = 100. (1 - (1 - 0.01)^100) = 0.63 = 63%.
That last calculation was not a mistake. Given the current estimated probability of nuclear warfare, there is a 63% chance of it occurring in the next century. Human beings of course are not Random Number Generators, and many will argue that the "human factor" will guarantee that nuclear war will never happen. But even if you believe that, you will nevertheless be forced to admit that, if nuclear warfare never breaks out on this Earth, it will be a miracle rivaling if not surpassing any and all that have been performed on this Earth before or since.
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